Interactive research report · Indonesia and global context

Indonesia Wildfire Evidence Report

Evidence-bounded researchMethods, uncertainty, and claim limits remain visible
Interactive evidence · geography with guardrails

Maps and comparisons

Explore Indonesia first, compare country-level context, then inspect Kalimantan reporting layers. Coloured polygons represent aggregates attached to reporting boundaries—not complete burned areas or fire-risk surfaces.

Spatial context · Indonesia first, global comparison second

Where are detections reported, and what can we infer?

Read the province map first for the latest spatial context. The chart below is the completed-2024 scientific comparison. Peatland is a mapped baseline exposure area; each circle is a country-level aggregate of NASA MODIS active-fire detections. A coloured polygon or point is not a claim that the whole area burned, and these records are not a complete inventory of fires.

Exploratory · not causal
Indonesia context · 34 province geometries

Indonesia province context

Indonesia is split into 34 frozen ADM1 display units. Province colors show only the latest FIRMS positive detection-record aggregate; the 2017 boundary source is not a current legal boundary. A colored polygon does not mean the whole polygon burned.

Exploratory · not causal
Province bundle: latest NRT only
Loading Indonesia province geometry…
Drag to orbit · scroll/pinch to zoom · hover to preview · click to pin
Latest NRT detections: lower → higher No matched aggregate / unknownCounts use a log scale with a robust 95th-percentile display cap; above-cap units remain visible. This is not a risk probability.

Select a province on the globe or from the picker to see its aggregate value and source caveats.

Boundary source: geoBoundaries IDN ADM1, reference year 2017, Open Database License. Data meaning: polygons are display units for positive detection aggregates; they do not say that all land inside the polygon burned.

Afghanistan: 0.0% peatland; 0.12 detections/1,000 km²Albania: 0.7% peatland; 25.94 detections/1,000 km²Algeria: 0.0% peatland; 0.63 detections/1,000 km²American Samoa: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Andorra: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Angola: 1.1% peatland; 297.05 detections/1,000 km²Antigua and Barbuda: 0.6% peatland; 2.32 detections/1,000 km²Argentina: 1.3% peatland; 16.33 detections/1,000 km²Armenia: 0.1% peatland; 4.93 detections/1,000 km²Aruba: 0.0% peatland; 6.47 detections/1,000 km²Australia: 0.4% peatland; 27.40 detections/1,000 km²Austria: 0.0% peatland; 0.51 detections/1,000 km²Azerbaijan: 0.5% peatland; 6.21 detections/1,000 km²Bahrain: 0.0% peatland; 16.65 detections/1,000 km²Bangladesh: 42.5% peatland; 13.20 detections/1,000 km²Barbados: 0.0% peatland; 23.21 detections/1,000 km²Belarus: 17.8% peatland; 1.58 detections/1,000 km²Belgium: 0.0% peatland; 0.94 detections/1,000 km²Belize: 7.5% peatland; 97.16 detections/1,000 km²Benin: 1.3% peatland; 72.25 detections/1,000 km²Bhutan: 0.0% peatland; 4.77 detections/1,000 km²Bolivia: 1.0% peatland; 182.83 detections/1,000 km²Bosnia and Herzegovina: 0.3% peatland; 11.26 detections/1,000 km²Botswana: 0.7% peatland; 13.79 detections/1,000 km²Brazil: 3.6% peatland; 58.21 detections/1,000 km²Brunei: 30.2% peatland; 7.97 detections/1,000 km²Bulgaria: 0.1% peatland; 9.91 detections/1,000 km²Burkina Faso: 0.1% peatland; 73.86 detections/1,000 km²Burundi: 2.5% peatland; 37.55 detections/1,000 km²Cambodia: 4.6% peatland; 138.97 detections/1,000 km²Cameroon: 1.4% peatland; 82.60 detections/1,000 km²Canada: 13.0% peatland; 12.89 detections/1,000 km²Cayman Islands: 12.7% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Central African Republic: 0.1% peatland; 209.59 detections/1,000 km²Chad: 0.3% peatland; 29.21 detections/1,000 km²Chile: 2.6% peatland; 5.16 detections/1,000 km²China: 1.9% peatland; 8.09 detections/1,000 km²Colombia: 6.0% peatland; 20.21 detections/1,000 km²Comoros: 0.0% peatland; 27.22 detections/1,000 km²Costa Rica: 2.7% peatland; 21.91 detections/1,000 km²Croatia: 0.3% peatland; 4.05 detections/1,000 km²Cuba: 12.2% peatland; 64.67 detections/1,000 km²Curaçao: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Cyprus: 0.1% peatland; 8.23 detections/1,000 km²Czechia: 0.2% peatland; 0.44 detections/1,000 km²Democratic Republic of the Congo: 8.1% peatland; 213.02 detections/1,000 km²Denmark: 1.2% peatland; 1.53 detections/1,000 km²Djibouti: 0.0% peatland; 2.13 detections/1,000 km²Dominica: 0.1% peatland; 1.44 detections/1,000 km²Dominican Republic: 1.0% peatland; 18.66 detections/1,000 km²East Timor: 0.2% peatland; 15.11 detections/1,000 km²Ecuador: 3.5% peatland; 18.73 detections/1,000 km²Egypt: 0.5% peatland; 1.00 detections/1,000 km²El Salvador: 1.6% peatland; 38.35 detections/1,000 km²Equatorial Guinea: 0.8% peatland; 8.63 detections/1,000 km²Eritrea: 0.0% peatland; 2.26 detections/1,000 km²Estonia: 19.6% peatland; 0.22 detections/1,000 km²Ethiopia: 0.3% peatland; 35.53 detections/1,000 km²Fiji: 0.0% peatland; 15.53 detections/1,000 km²Finland: 23.1% peatland; 0.39 detections/1,000 km²France: 0.7% peatland; 1.25 detections/1,000 km²French Polynesia: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Gabon: 1.3% peatland; 10.81 detections/1,000 km²Gambia: 8.9% peatland; 125.16 detections/1,000 km²Georgia: 0.9% peatland; 5.22 detections/1,000 km²Germany: 3.9% peatland; 2.15 detections/1,000 km²Ghana: 0.6% peatland; 186.84 detections/1,000 km²Greece: 0.2% peatland; 8.77 detections/1,000 km²Greenland: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Guam: 0.0% peatland; 18.73 detections/1,000 km²Guatemala: 0.7% peatland; 98.54 detections/1,000 km²Guinea: 1.4% peatland; 274.10 detections/1,000 km²Guinea-Bissau: 9.0% peatland; 150.95 detections/1,000 km²Guyana: 5.9% peatland; 24.39 detections/1,000 km²Haiti: 1.4% peatland; 9.77 detections/1,000 km²Heard Island and McDonald Islands: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Honduras: 6.3% peatland; 85.19 detections/1,000 km²Hong Kong S.A.R.: 2.8% peatland; 1.95 detections/1,000 km²Hungary: 2.6% peatland; 2.20 detections/1,000 km²Iceland: 4.8% peatland; 1.54 detections/1,000 km²India: 1.2% peatland; 21.04 detections/1,000 km²Indonesia: 23.4% peatland; 9.76 detections/1,000 km²Iran: 0.2% peatland; 6.32 detections/1,000 km²Iraq: 0.4% peatland; 21.90 detections/1,000 km²Ireland: 23.1% peatland; 0.25 detections/1,000 km²Israel: 0.1% peatland; 12.03 detections/1,000 km²Italy: 0.0% peatland; 6.72 detections/1,000 km²Ivory Coast: 0.7% peatland; 70.11 detections/1,000 km²Jamaica: 3.1% peatland; 11.01 detections/1,000 km²Japan: 3.4% peatland; 2.76 detections/1,000 km²Jordan: 0.0% peatland; 0.59 detections/1,000 km²Kazakhstan: 2.0% peatland; 2.12 detections/1,000 km²Kenya: 0.2% peatland; 4.92 detections/1,000 km²Kosovo: 0.0% peatland; 22.60 detections/1,000 km²Kuwait: 0.0% peatland; 20.34 detections/1,000 km²Kyrgyzstan: 0.3% peatland; 0.53 detections/1,000 km²Laos: 0.4% peatland; 191.65 detections/1,000 km²Latvia: 7.3% peatland; 0.42 detections/1,000 km²Lebanon: 0.0% peatland; 20.98 detections/1,000 km²Lesotho: 0.0% peatland; 38.14 detections/1,000 km²Liberia: 2.0% peatland; 118.63 detections/1,000 km²Libya: 0.0% peatland; 0.24 detections/1,000 km²Lithuania: 6.5% peatland; 0.25 detections/1,000 km²Luxembourg: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Madagascar: 1.1% peatland; 111.34 detections/1,000 km²Malawi: 0.2% peatland; 62.22 detections/1,000 km²Malaysia: 14.1% peatland; 6.54 detections/1,000 km²Maldives: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Mali: 0.1% peatland; 27.43 detections/1,000 km²Malta: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Mauritania: 0.0% peatland; 0.64 detections/1,000 km²Mauritius: 0.0% peatland; 16.01 detections/1,000 km²Mexico: 1.4% peatland; 35.04 detections/1,000 km²Moldova: 0.1% peatland; 3.82 detections/1,000 km²Mongolia: 11.6% peatland; 0.39 detections/1,000 km²Montenegro: 0.3% peatland; 21.62 detections/1,000 km²Montserrat: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Morocco: 0.0% peatland; 0.24 detections/1,000 km²Mozambique: 0.7% peatland; 190.91 detections/1,000 km²Myanmar: 3.2% peatland; 79.02 detections/1,000 km²Namibia: 0.1% peatland; 7.08 detections/1,000 km²Nepal: 0.8% peatland; 43.86 detections/1,000 km²Netherlands: 12.8% peatland; 2.52 detections/1,000 km²New Caledonia: 1.1% peatland; 12.95 detections/1,000 km²New Zealand: 1.2% peatland; 1.44 detections/1,000 km²Nicaragua: 9.4% peatland; 59.01 detections/1,000 km²Niger: 0.0% peatland; 1.92 detections/1,000 km²Nigeria: 3.3% peatland; 76.29 detections/1,000 km²North Korea: 1.1% peatland; 3.29 detections/1,000 km²Northern Mariana Islands: 0.0% peatland; 20.40 detections/1,000 km²Norway: 2.4% peatland; 0.08 detections/1,000 km²Oman: 0.0% peatland; 1.61 detections/1,000 km²Pakistan: 0.7% peatland; 13.50 detections/1,000 km²Palestine: 0.0% peatland; 14.06 detections/1,000 km²Panama: 2.5% peatland; 19.73 detections/1,000 km²Papua New Guinea: 15.4% peatland; 8.89 detections/1,000 km²Paraguay: 2.2% peatland; 98.80 detections/1,000 km²Peru: 8.7% peatland; 15.08 detections/1,000 km²Philippines: 3.8% peatland; 18.58 detections/1,000 km²Poland: 3.4% peatland; 0.64 detections/1,000 km²Portugal: 0.5% peatland; 32.49 detections/1,000 km²Puerto Rico: 1.9% peatland; 2.36 detections/1,000 km²Qatar: 0.0% peatland; 2.08 detections/1,000 km²Republic of Serbia: 0.2% peatland; 15.42 detections/1,000 km²Romania: 1.0% peatland; 6.77 detections/1,000 km²Russia: 28.1% peatland; 12.62 detections/1,000 km²Rwanda: 5.0% peatland; 9.02 detections/1,000 km²Saint Helena: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Saint Kitts and Nevis: 0.0% peatland; 12.92 detections/1,000 km²Saint Lucia: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Samoa: 0.0% peatland; 1.49 detections/1,000 km²Saudi Arabia: 0.0% peatland; 0.70 detections/1,000 km²Senegal: 1.6% peatland; 94.52 detections/1,000 km²Seychelles: 0.0% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Sierra Leone: 6.0% peatland; 360.82 detections/1,000 km²Singapore: 4.1% peatland; 0.00 detections/1,000 km²Slovakia: 0.0% peatland; 0.45 detections/1,000 km²Slovenia: 0.2% peatland; 0.25 detections/1,000 km²Solomon Islands: 1.9% peatland; 0.74 detections/1,000 km²Somalia: 0.0% peatland; 0.47 detections/1,000 km²South Africa: 0.1% peatland; 43.45 detections/1,000 km²South Korea: 0.3% peatland; 3.81 detections/1,000 km²South Sudan: 2.2% peatland; 285.64 detections/1,000 km²Spain: 0.1% peatland; 3.41 detections/1,000 km²Sri Lanka: 1.3% peatland; 7.69 detections/1,000 km²Sudan: 0.0% peatland; 21.32 detections/1,000 km²Suriname: 7.6% peatland; 10.53 detections/1,000 km²Sweden: 8.3% peatland; 0.22 detections/1,000 km²Switzerland: 0.7% peatland; 0.29 detections/1,000 km²Syria: 0.0% peatland; 9.81 detections/1,000 km²São Tomé and Principe: 0.0% peatland; 8.15 detections/1,000 km²Taiwan: 0.0% peatland; 2.45 detections/1,000 km²Tajikistan: 0.0% peatland; 0.50 detections/1,000 km²Thailand: 3.0% peatland; 35.41 detections/1,000 km²The Bahamas: 6.5% peatland; 19.46 detections/1,000 km²Togo: 0.1% peatland; 113.86 detections/1,000 km²Tonga: 0.0% peatland; 4.65 detections/1,000 km²Trinidad and Tobago: 3.6% peatland; 21.25 detections/1,000 km²Tunisia: 0.0% peatland; 0.91 detections/1,000 km²Turkey: 0.1% peatland; 13.85 detections/1,000 km²Turkmenistan: 0.1% peatland; 2.11 detections/1,000 km²Uganda: 2.4% peatland; 47.98 detections/1,000 km²Ukraine: 2.5% peatland; 38.04 detections/1,000 km²United Arab Emirates: 0.0% peatland; 2.64 detections/1,000 km²United Kingdom: 18.8% peatland; 0.88 detections/1,000 km²United Republic of Tanzania: 0.8% peatland; 83.76 detections/1,000 km²United States of America: 4.1% peatland; 11.82 detections/1,000 km²Uruguay: 0.3% peatland; 1.93 detections/1,000 km²Uzbekistan: 0.0% peatland; 2.90 detections/1,000 km²Vanuatu: 0.1% peatland; 1.42 detections/1,000 km²Venezuela: 7.1% peatland; 78.26 detections/1,000 km²Vietnam: 7.2% peatland; 47.83 detections/1,000 km²Yemen: 0.0% peatland; 0.08 detections/1,000 km²Zambia: 3.4% peatland; 263.67 detections/1,000 km²Zimbabwe: 0.0% peatland; 46.92 detections/1,000 km²Country peatland share (%)MODIS detections / 1,000 km² (log scale)

Each dot is one of 196 matched countries. The chart is descriptive; it has no observation-opportunity denominator.

Primary test≥50% peat extentCountry fixed-effects Poisson model with log(area) offset.
Adjusted rate ratio0.8895% CI 0.38–2.03 · p=0.763
InterpretationNot statistically significantCI includes 1, so this test does not establish higher detection in peatland.

Threshold sensitivity

The conclusion is unchanged when “peatland” is defined as a cell with at least 25%, 50%, or 75% peat extent.

DefinitionAdjusted RR95% CIp-value
≥25% peat extent0.940.38–2.320.899
≥50% peat extent0.880.38–2.030.763
≥75% peat extent0.850.23–3.180.808
How to read this correctly
  • Peat source: latest global ensemble release (24 Apr 2026), but its mapped reference period is 2000–2020—not a 2026 land-cover observation.
  • Fire source: 2024 NASA FIRMS MODIS Collection 6.1 standard archive, presumed vegetation-fire detections with confidence ≥30.
  • “Detection” means a satellite thermal detection, not a unique fire, burned-area polygon, or fire probability. Cloud, orbit, sensor, land management, and spatial confounding remain.
  • This is a country-level association test. It cannot prove that peat causes fire or that peatland is less vulnerable when the ratio is below 1.
Regional reporting context

Now inspect the Kalimantan reporting layers

The controls below change the source, period, and satellite platform. They do not turn aggregate records into a fire-risk estimate. SiPongi has five current units; GWIS has four legacy units and must be read separately.

Evidence layer
SiPongi period
Boundary systemSiPongi current five
Latest positive portal records104,465All platforms · 1 Jul to 20 Aug 2026 (partial) · closed-day partial monitor, not fires or ignitions
Latest RONI context+0.98 °CMJJ 2026, ending 31 Jul 2026; provisional and not a same-period fire-season mean.
Source-bounded provinces5 / 5Five validated provincial responses; no observation denominator.
Research statusAnalysis completeEnvironmental and land-cover models are fitted; actor and intent attribution remain outside the evidence.
Local reporting layer

Kalimantan province evidence

These polygons represent reporting units and their aggregates—not areas that are all burned.

Real WGS84 SiPongi evidence globe

Actual frozen province geometry on a local NASA Blue Marble Earth surface. Drag to orbit, scroll or pinch to zoom, hover to preview, and click a boundary for full aggregate details.

SiPongi current five
Loading verified globe engine…
Hover a boundary to preview; click or tap to pin full details.
Color ramp: lower to higher aggregate for this selected source, period, and year Checkered unknown coverage (not zero)Polygons are aggregate reporting units, not fire locations or risk areas.
Boundary source: geoBoundaries IDN ADM1, source OpenStreetMap / Wambacher; © OpenStreetMap contributors, ODbL 1.0.Earth surface: NASA Blue Marble. Boundary geometry is a display layer only; it does not replace the still-blocked primary study frame.

No province selected.

Latest portal monitor

Not part of the completed-season trend

This view stops on the last closed portal-reported date, 20 Aug 2026. It is deliberately excluded from the year slider, annual trend chart, July-November comparison, and August-November RONI mean.

Use it to inspect the current aggregate portal response only. It is not a fire rate, a detection-adjusted count, a forecast, a risk surface, or a causal result.

Province aggregate table

Keyboard-accessible alternative to the canvas. The two boundary systems cannot be merged or directly totalled.

SiPongi current five
ProvincePositive portal recordsPlatformCoverage / interpretation
52,574All platformsValidated through 20 Aug 2026; partial monitor, no observation denominator
26,601All platformsValidated through 20 Aug 2026; partial monitor, no observation denominator
10,502All platformsValidated through 20 Aug 2026; partial monitor, no observation denominator
12,568All platformsValidated through 20 Aug 2026; partial monitor, no observation denominator
2,220All platformsValidated through 20 Aug 2026; partial monitor, no observation denominator